permafrost and the permian
If you're unaware of these, you should become aware of them as soon as possible:
... the following websites:
http://dieoff.org/page25.htm
http://www.clubofrome.org/docs/limits.rtf
http://dieoff.org/page175.htm
http://www.context.org/ICLIB/IC32/Meadows.htm
And here are some of the scientific facts:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4184110.stm
go on to http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/02/050223130549.htm
and follow links from:
http://www.google.co.za/search?hl=en&safe=off&q=
permian+extinction+global+warming+6+deg&btnG=Search&meta=
This is from my friend Mike Cope's latest book, Intricacy:
Long ago there occurred an event which had a profound effect on the continued presence of living things on the planet. Palaeontologists call this event the Permian extinction, and place it at the Permian/Triassic boundary, around the time that the long-lived bacterium was setting itself up for the extended wait.
It seems (and it is a matter of some dispute) that at around that time, two hundred and fifty one million years ago, conditions on the earth made a very sudden shift. Where there had been a biodiverse and complex society of living beings, suddenly ninety-five percent of species go missing, never to be seen again. The succession of rocks deposited then shows that above the complex fossil-bearing strata there is a layer of sand and rubble indicating erosion on the land-mass as the plants died, along with the animals that depended on them. Land animals were hard-hit, and only two species of four-legged animals are thought to have survived – one of them a reptile resembling a pig, our ancestor. The ocean did worse, with an almost total die-out. What happened? Competing theories have been ad-vanced: a meteor hit the planet, or a planetary body passed close by, the earth's crust shifted on its mantle as Einstein thought might be possible, or a nearby supernova emitted enough gamma radiation to kill most living things.
In recent years, as dating techniques have improved, one theory has taken the lead: The event was triggered by volcanic eruptions in the area now called Siberia, where the earth split along immense trenches, pumping vast amounts of lava, carbon dioxide and sulphur onto the surface and into the air. Fancy techniques to do with isotopes allow this rise in atmospheric carbon to be traced. The carbon dioxide caused global warming which, it is thought, was enough to release methane trapped in the circumpolar ice. Now methane is a much more efficient greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, and when it gets into the mix, the temperature jumps suddenly. The jump is enough to dis-rupt weather and change all local conditions beyond the adaptive ranges of the vast majority of hapless animals and plants. The disruption of ocean currents prevents oxygen from reaching the ocean beds, killing the seas and the cor-als and hobbling the global oxygen economy. Planetary oxygen levels plummet. Meltdown. This model, while still in some dispute, is consistent with the fossil record.
Some scientists have proposed a number of degrees of warming, based on carbon isotope measurements: at the time of the Permian/Triassic boundary, there was six degrees centigrade of global warming, they claim. Other scientists are far more cautious: when things are that old, the accuracy of measurements is woolly at best. But the de-tailed model which factors methane in with carbon dioxide is now a matter of consensus science and not in dispute except by corporate toadies of the oil companies. Predic-tions for global warming caused by industrial civilisation by the end of this century range from three to twelve degrees. If the methane is released, the models strongly suggest, we can forget ourselves, individually and as a species. The world will no longer nurture the steady succession of generations, the repository of memory that we take for granted.
The great biologist E O Wilson reckons that if we come out of our current scrape with fifty percent of the species we have now, we'll be doing pretty well, and is am-biguous about the hope that humans will be among of the survivors. And yet, like gamblers, addicts, writers and artists, we carry on as before, hoping for the lucky break, the skewed odds that might bring us through. We know how special we are and how much we deserve to make it.
... the following websites:
http://dieoff.org/page25.htm
http://www.clubofrome.org/docs/limits.rtf
http://dieoff.org/page175.htm
http://www.context.org/ICLIB/IC32/Meadows.htm
And here are some of the scientific facts:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4184110.stm
go on to http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/02/050223130549.htm
and follow links from:
http://www.google.co.za/search?hl=en&safe=off&q=
permian+extinction+global+warming+6+deg&btnG=Search&meta=
This is from my friend Mike Cope's latest book, Intricacy:
Long ago there occurred an event which had a profound effect on the continued presence of living things on the planet. Palaeontologists call this event the Permian extinction, and place it at the Permian/Triassic boundary, around the time that the long-lived bacterium was setting itself up for the extended wait.
It seems (and it is a matter of some dispute) that at around that time, two hundred and fifty one million years ago, conditions on the earth made a very sudden shift. Where there had been a biodiverse and complex society of living beings, suddenly ninety-five percent of species go missing, never to be seen again. The succession of rocks deposited then shows that above the complex fossil-bearing strata there is a layer of sand and rubble indicating erosion on the land-mass as the plants died, along with the animals that depended on them. Land animals were hard-hit, and only two species of four-legged animals are thought to have survived – one of them a reptile resembling a pig, our ancestor. The ocean did worse, with an almost total die-out. What happened? Competing theories have been ad-vanced: a meteor hit the planet, or a planetary body passed close by, the earth's crust shifted on its mantle as Einstein thought might be possible, or a nearby supernova emitted enough gamma radiation to kill most living things.
In recent years, as dating techniques have improved, one theory has taken the lead: The event was triggered by volcanic eruptions in the area now called Siberia, where the earth split along immense trenches, pumping vast amounts of lava, carbon dioxide and sulphur onto the surface and into the air. Fancy techniques to do with isotopes allow this rise in atmospheric carbon to be traced. The carbon dioxide caused global warming which, it is thought, was enough to release methane trapped in the circumpolar ice. Now methane is a much more efficient greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, and when it gets into the mix, the temperature jumps suddenly. The jump is enough to dis-rupt weather and change all local conditions beyond the adaptive ranges of the vast majority of hapless animals and plants. The disruption of ocean currents prevents oxygen from reaching the ocean beds, killing the seas and the cor-als and hobbling the global oxygen economy. Planetary oxygen levels plummet. Meltdown. This model, while still in some dispute, is consistent with the fossil record.
Some scientists have proposed a number of degrees of warming, based on carbon isotope measurements: at the time of the Permian/Triassic boundary, there was six degrees centigrade of global warming, they claim. Other scientists are far more cautious: when things are that old, the accuracy of measurements is woolly at best. But the de-tailed model which factors methane in with carbon dioxide is now a matter of consensus science and not in dispute except by corporate toadies of the oil companies. Predic-tions for global warming caused by industrial civilisation by the end of this century range from three to twelve degrees. If the methane is released, the models strongly suggest, we can forget ourselves, individually and as a species. The world will no longer nurture the steady succession of generations, the repository of memory that we take for granted.
The great biologist E O Wilson reckons that if we come out of our current scrape with fifty percent of the species we have now, we'll be doing pretty well, and is am-biguous about the hope that humans will be among of the survivors. And yet, like gamblers, addicts, writers and artists, we carry on as before, hoping for the lucky break, the skewed odds that might bring us through. We know how special we are and how much we deserve to make it.
posted by cloudhand at 8:44 AM
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